Great West title race is often, well, great

NCAA Football Betting Lines

08/11/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The concept that "there is little margin for error" doesn't hold much merit in the five-team Great West football conference.

There's usually no margin for error.

There's been a different champion in each of the past four seasons, and last year's race was about as closely bunched as can be expected. No team was better than 6-5, no team was worse than 4-7, and UC Davis reigned with a 3-1 conference mark, followed by North Dakota, South Dakota and Southern Utah at 2-2 each and Cal Poly, the 2008 champion, in last place at 1-3.

Great West head coaches are expecting another close race this season, and a similar finish. Three of the five coaches installed UC Davis as the favorite in the conference's preseason poll, with Cal Poly second and Southern Utah third, gaining one first-place vote each. South Dakota was picked fourth and North Dakota fifth.

"Because of the smallness of the league, every game has a sense of urgency and it throws in a little bit of chaos," Cal Poly coach Tim Walsh said. "In a five-team conference, 4-0 is the mark you have to shoot for."

UC Davis won last year's title despite a two-touchdown loss to North Dakota. The Aggies return eight starters on offense and six on defense, but are replacing standout quarterback Greg Denham after he decided during the offseason not to return for his senior season. A superb offensive line will make the transition easier for expected signal-caller Austin Heyworth.

"I often base a successful football team by what they do during the offseason and the character. the commitment ... and the work ethic," UC Davis coach Bob Biggs said. "And I think that's where we've really done a great job this year. It's player-driven."

Cal Poly returns 19 starters - the most starters among Great West teams - as they try to overcome last year's first losing season since 2002. Included among the veterans are quarterback Tony Smith, his entire offensive line, linebacker Marty Mohamed and cornerback Asa Jackson.

Southern Utah appears to have its best chance to not only post its first winning record in Great West action (the conference formed for the 2004 season), but also win the title. The Thunderbirds return a dominant pair of wide receivers, Tysson Poots and Fesi Sitake, who combined for 164 receptions and 24 touchdown catches last season.

"Every team is capable of beating every other team," Southern Utah coach Ed Lamb said. "Cal Davis and Cal Poly have set the standard in our conference for program consistency, player talent and confidence. We are hoping to catch up in those races."

South Dakota features running back Chris Ganious, while North Dakota will rely on quarterback Jake Landry and running back Mitch Sutton.

"The common denominator of Great West champions, since I've been in this league, is great quarterback play," South Dakota coach Ed Meierkort said. "That has usually separated it. Two years ago, it was Cal Poly's quarterback (John Dally) that played fantastic and last year it was UC Davis' quarterback (Denham) that played fantastic. We were in the hunt because our quarterback played fantastic. You only get so many opportunities in conference games, so you can't slip. You're quarterback has got to make big-time plays."

The reasons for the closeness of Great West races are varied, and each is important for surviving a race in which teams play a mere two conference games at home and two on the road.

"Probably staying healthy at key positions and I think home-field advantage is a big factor, quite frankly, in the Great West," Biggs said. "I think that it's a tough environment because of the altitude and other issues playing at Southern Utah, I think the indoor arenas favor the home teams in North Dakota and South Dakota, and Cal Poly is not an easy place to get to with the long travel."

"Special teams," North Dakota coach Chris Mussman added. "Take a look at Southern Utah's guy (Sitake) last year, he was a weapon. You look at our game against South Dakota and their field goal kicker missed a couple of opportunities that would have put them right in the game. As balanced as we are, I think special teams makes a big difference."

GREAT WEST PRESEASON POLL (Head Coaches)

1. UC Davis (3 first-place votes), 23 points

2. Cal Poly (1), 18

3. Southern Utah (1), 14

4. South Dakota, 11

5. North Dakota, 9

Wwwsorasguide NCAA Football Betting News

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Big East Conference odds

Work left to do: Villanova, Syracuse, DePaul, West Virginia, Providence

Notre Dame and Louisville appear to have done enough to make the move, so we'll make them locks. The Cardinals, despite a modest RPI, are trending way up and have clinched at least a tie for third in the Big East, which should be more than enough with their pair of big road wins. Villanova got back to .500 and gets back to more solid footing. Syracuse got a very important road win and crippled a fellow contender in the process. West Virginia's fate could be in its hands Tuesday at Pitt.

Work left to do:

Villanova [18-9 (7-7), RPI: 21, SOS: 5] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.

Syracuse [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 62] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.

DePaul [16-12 (8-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...

West Virginia [19-7 (8-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 125] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.

Providence [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 33] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.

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