Happ beats Halladay as Astros edge struggling Phillies

Baseball Betting Lines

08/25/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Humberto Quintero's RBI single in the seventh inning helped J.A. Happ upend his former teammates, as Houston took another slim 3-2 victory over Philadelphia at Citizens Bank Park.

Happ (4-2), who was traded by the Phillies along with two prospects to Houston in exchange for Roy Oswalt prior to the trade deadline, yielded just two runs on five hits in 6 1/3 innings for the Astros, who have won the first three meetings in the four-game set.

Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn each hit a solo homer for the victors.

Roy Halladay (16-9) had a personal six-start win streak snapped, as the right- handed ace was touched for three runs in seven frames for the Phils, who stayed 2 1/2 games behind the Braves in the National League East race.

Both starters pitched into the seventh, a much-needed rest for both bullpens after Tuesday's grueling 16-inning marathon that Houston pulled out, 4-2.

Neither team recorded a hit until Pence crushed a 2-0 fastball into the seats in left-center with two outs in the fourth, breaking Halladay's scoreless stretch at 19 innings.

The Phillies' first hit was also a solo blast, as Jayson Werth took Happ deep over the wall in left leading off the fifth.

Bourn got into the act in the sixth with a solo shot to right for just his second home run of the year and first since June 28.

Halladay made up for the mistake with a leadoff single in the bottom half and went to second on a one-out single by Shane Victorino. Placido Polanco then lined a double over Carlos Lee's head in left to plate Halladay.

Both Victorino and Polanco were stranded, though, and the Astros took the lead again in the seventh, as Chris Johnson doubled with one away and came in two batters later on Quintero's bloop single to left.

Philadelphia threatened in the bottom half, but with two on and one out, Raul Ibanez, pinch-hitting for Halladay, flew out to center against Tim Byrdak. Then, with Mark Melancon on the hill, Quintero threw behind Ben Francisco at third. The runner stepped on Johnson's foot at the bag then stepped off and was tagged out for the unorthodox pickoff.

Brandon Lyon hurled a 1-2-3 eighth, then struck out the side in the ninth around Ryan Howard's two-out, pinch-hit single to pick up his eighth save of the season.

Despite the loss, the Phillies stayed atop the NL Wild Card race with the Giants, who lost an extra-inning game to Cincinnati earlier Wednesday.

Game Notes

The Astros announced pitcher Brian Moehler, sidelined since early July, will have surgery to repair a muscle in his lower abdomen that will end his 2010 season...Halladay had pitched to a 1.37 earned run average over his win streak.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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