MVP talk doesn't rattle Packers QB Rodgers

Football Betting Lines

09/08/2010 -

GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) - During training camp, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers noted that the team has a different kind of swagger this year. He called it ``real confidence.''

Now that Rodgers enters Sunday's regular season opener in Philadelphia as a fashionable pick to become the league's MVP and lead his team on a long playoff run this year, Rodgers said his own approach hasn't changed.

``I've always had real confidence,'' Rodgers said, holding eye contact for emphasis.

It seems like everybody else has confidence in Rodgers, too.

After spending most of the first three years of his NFL career on the bench, Rodgers faced plenty of skepticism - even from his own fans - when the Packers traded icon-turned-malcontent Brett Favre and handed Rodgers the keys to the offense.

Rodgers played well in 2008 despite sustaining a significant shoulder injury early in the season. Rodgers then led the Packers back to the playoffs last year despite taking a league-high 50 sacks.

In two seasons as a No. 1 quarterback, Rodgers has started all 32 regular-season games, throwing 58 touchdowns and 20 interceptions. In the preseason this year, he completed 77.4 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and no interceptions.

With Rodgers running what is shaping up as one of the NFL's best offenses, pundits are hailing him as a potential MVP. If he leads the Packers on a long playoff run, he could barge his way into conversations about the league's elite quarterbacks.

And given what he already has shown the ability to handle, wide receiver Greg Jennings said there's no reason to doubt he'll be able to deal with high expectations.

``He handles it all great,'' Jennings said. ``No. 1, in this league, you've got to be able to handle adversity, and he's shown he can handle adverse situations. No. 2, you've got to be able to handle success, and he's shown that he can handle success. We're not worried about Aaron handling any situation.''

Rodgers' ascent has become a blueprint for new Eagles starter Kevin Kolb, who will try to outduel Rodgers on Sunday after turning to him for occasional advice in the offseason.

``He has no idea how much of a fan of him I am because of what I got to see him go through and the way he handles the adversity,'' Kolb said. ``He always took it back to football and didn't get caught up in it.''

Kolb is trying to replace Donovan McNabb, and perhaps only Rodgers can understand what that's like.

``I've talked to him and definitely shared thoughts with him, I'm impressed with the way he's handled himself,'' Rodgers said. ``He's definitely endeared himself to his team and his fan base and the coaching staff and organization by the way he's handled the whole situation, which is never the easiest situation following the guys we followed.''

Rodgers, meanwhile, will gladly take the MVP talk after spending two years fielding questions about replacing Favre or taking sacks.

``I think it's a lot easier,'' Rodgers said. ``It definitely is. But it's honestly never entered my thought process. You know, the awards and the predictions and stuff, really, I think that's preseason fodder. Just stuff to chew on while the games may not be as meaningful. But once we get into the everyday grind of the season, guys are just focused on that week.''

Still, that didn't stop a few Packers players from wearing cowboy hats to a recent season kickoff luncheon - an allusion to the Super Bowl in Dallas, and an idea that apparently can be traced back to the quarterback.

``He kind of was the leader on that thing, no question,'' veteran tackle Mark Tauscher said.

The expectations are out there, so why not have fun with them?

``This is a fun job, but it's also a grind,'' Tauscher said. ``You have to be able to have some fun and have laughs and I think Aaron does a great job of trying to keep guys loose when it's the appropriate time.''

Packers coach Mike McCarthy made a point of embracing Super Bowl expectations at the beginning of training camp. But with a tough road opener looming, he doesn't want to hear a word about how his quarterback is considered an MVP candidate.

``I would say Aaron Rodgers is handling his business in a very professional manner, just like he has in the past,'' McCarthy said. ``All of those types of awards, Super Bowl talk, frankly that is preseason talk. That is over in our mind. The only thing we are interested in is Philadelphia.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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